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    Goldman warns downside risk for copper, trims price target

    Key Takeaways
    • They've nudged their base case down from $12,850 to $12,650 a ton.
    • It's not a huge cut, but it's Goldman, so it always catches my eye.
    • I've been pretty bullish on copper for a while, especially with all the electrification and green energy plays.
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    Hey everyone,

    Just read this article from Mining.com about Goldman Sachs trimming their copper price target for 2026: https://www.mining.com/goldman-warns-downside-risk-for-copper-trims-price-target/. They've nudged their base case down from $12,850 to $12,650 a ton. It's not a huge cut, but it's Goldman, so it always catches my eye. I've been pretty bullish on copper for a while, especially with all the electrification and green energy plays. I've got some exposure in my portfolio through a couple of miners and a pure-play copper ETF, and I'm honestly still feeling good about the long-term prospects. This just feels like a minor blip, maybe some short-term market noise or a re-evaluation of demand curves. I remember back in 2020-2021 when everyone was calling for the end of the world, and copper just kept on chugging along.

    My strategy has always been to ignore the daily fluctuations and focus on the bigger picture, especially when it comes to fundamental shifts like the move to EVs. My wife and I are planning our retirement for around 2035, so I'm really looking at a 10+ year horizon here. A couple hundred bucks off a 2026 target isn't really going to derail that. But it does make you pause and think, y'know? What specifically are they seeing that might cause this adjustment? Is it supply coming online faster than expected, or a more tempered global growth forecast?

    What are your thoughts on this? Are any of you adjusting your positions based on this kind of news, or are you also holding steady on your copper bets? Keen to hear if anyone thinks this is a bigger deal than I'm making it out to be.

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    18 comments

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    Best Answer▲ 19 upvotes
    R
    ronald_morris👑Elite (1m-5m)
    Interesting to see Goldman Sachs weighing in on copper. I'm just getting my feet wet with physical gold in my IRA, having recently moved a decent chunk over from some underperforming tech stocks. What's the general consensus here – does news like this on other commodities usually impact gold, even if it's more of a safe-haven play? I'm still trying to connect the dots on how different markets influence each other, especially for someone just starting to learn about precious metals beyond just buying a few ounces for fun.

    Comments (18)

    1
    ruth_perez📊Growing (50-100k)about 1 month ago

    Interesting take from Goldman, but I'm not entirely convinced on the copper downside. My allocation is mostly in physical gold for obvious reasons, but the industrial demand for copper, especially with all the infrastructure spending and green tech kicking in, seems to tell a different story than a simple cyclical downturn. I remember watching those price forecasts during the last run-up in the early 2010s from some of the bigger banks, and they were often a step behind what was actually happening on the ground.

    8
    helen_turner💰Established (100-250k)Real Investorabout 1 month ago

    This is why diversification isn't just a buzzword, folks. While I primarily focus on physical gold in my IRA, I've seen too many people in Louisville get burned chasing the latest hot commodity. Gold's track record as a store of value makes it a no-brainer for stability, especially when other markets are getting choppy.

    15
    timothy_reed💎Premium (500k-1m)Real Investorabout 1 month ago

    Good riddance to copper, honestly. I've been eyeing a bigger allocation to gold IRA options for my retirement savings, and moves like this just solidify my precious metals strategy. Volatility in industrial metals makes me nervous, especially when I'm thinking long-term preservation of capital after a 401k rollover. The tax advantages of holding physical gold are just too compelling right now.

    4
    kenneth_parker💎Premium (500k-1m)Real Investor✓ Verifiedabout 1 month ago

    Good to see someone else keeping an eye on these things. I'm in Memphis, and I've been watching copper for a while now, definitely think Goldman's got a point. Back in 2021, I was trying to diversify a bit more of my portfolio beyond just precious metals, eyeing some industrial commodities for growth. Honestly, after seeing the Tax Calculator at https://tax.goldirablueprint.com/?forum, I realized how much leaving funds in my Gold IRA would save me come tax time anyway, which made the lower-growth commodity play less appealing. Ended up sticking to gold and silver, and I'm glad I did, especially with these kinds of warnings coming out.

    10
    patricia_miller📊Growing (50-100k)✓ Verifiedabout 1 month ago

    Just dipping my toes into the precious metals world with a new Gold IRA, and this is the kind of news that gets me thinking. If Goldman's bearish on copper, does that have a ripple effect on gold, or are they generally decoupled? I'm in Denver, looking at about a 70k portfolio for now, trying to learn which way the winds blow.

    0
    carol_carter💰Established (100-250k)Real Investorabout 1 month ago

    Interesting. I've been watching copper for a while as a potential play to diversify outside of just precious metals. If major banks are starting to cool on it, does this shift the sentiment more toward silver as the industrial *and* precious metal of choice, or do folks think copper's dip just makes it a better long-term buy now? Really curious how others are weighing these cross-commodity signals.

    15
    charles_lewis💎Premium (500k-1m)Real Investorabout 1 month ago

    This copper news is exactly why I’ve been so heavy into physical gold for the past few years. It's not just about inflation protection; it's about seeing these commodities swing wildly while gold maintains its long-term stability. The Gold vs Stocks 10-year comparison at goldvsstocks.goldirablueprint.com/?period=10Y really puts it in perspective – especially when you look at that decade and how much safer gold felt during some pretty choppy waters. Makes you think twice about chasing returns in these volatile markets.

    18
    joshua_phillips🏆Advanced (250-500k)Real Investor✓ Verifiedabout 1 month ago

    This is interesting, especially seeing how closely copper and gold have tracked lately. My question is, how much of this copper prediction should we factor into an actual Gold IRA strategy? Are we just talking general economic sentiment bleeding over, or is this a specific 'canary in the global economy coal mine' that suggests more aggressive gold positioning is warranted? Just trying to parse the signal from the noise for those of us with significant capital in PMs.

    4
    jason_morgan💰Established (100-250k)Real Investor✓ Verifiedabout 1 month ago

    @Patricia Miller, that's an interesting thought process, and a good one to have when starting out. While copper and gold *can* show some correlation, particularly in broader economic sentiment, I'd respectfully offer a different perspective for your consideration. My own portfolio, built up over several years here in Jacksonville, hasn't seen gold directly follow copper's lead. Gold often marches to its own drum due to its safe-haven appeal and monetary characteristics, rather than purely industrial demand like copper. So, a bearish outlook on copper doesn't automatically mean gold is in for a rough ride – sometimes it can even be a positive if it signals general economic uncertainty.

    9
    joyce_cooper📊Growing (50-100k)✓ Verifiedabout 1 month ago

    @Carol Carter - That's a good point about copper. While I get the appeal of diversification, especially with other metals, my retirement savings strategy has really honed in on gold because of its stability, especially living here in Little Rock. I did a 401k rollover into a gold IRA a few years back, and honestly, the peace of mind and the tax advantages have been far more attractive than chasing industrial metals. With all the global uncertainty, I prefer having a solid base of precious metals in my portfolio.

    19
    ronald_morris👑Elite (1m-5m)Real Investorabout 1 month ago

    Interesting to see Goldman Sachs weighing in on copper. I'm just getting my feet wet with physical gold in my IRA, having recently moved a decent chunk over from some underperforming tech stocks. What's the general consensus here – does news like this on other commodities usually impact gold, even if it's more of a safe-haven play? I'm still trying to connect the dots on how different markets influence each other, especially for someone just starting to learn about precious metals beyond just buying a few ounces for fun.

    0
    margaret_chen🏆Advanced (250-500k)Real Investorabout 1 month ago

    Interesting read, but copper's not really my play. I'm deep in gold and silver for the long haul, especially with all the market jitters. When I was first setting up my IRA back in the Bay Area, trying to find a reliable company was a headache. Honestly, checking out the Best Gold IRA Companies comparison right here on Gold IRA Blueprint really helped me narrow down my options from the 500k I was looking to allocate. Got me sorted with a reputable custodian pretty quickly.

    9
    matthew_murphy👑Elite (1m-5m)Real Investorabout 1 month ago

    @Patricia Miller, with all due respect, I've got to push back a bit on the typical "ripple effect" thinking. I'm sitting here in Dublin, Ohio, looking at my own portfolio – a good chunk of which is in physical gold in my IRA – and honestly, I find people often overcomplicate the gold-copper correlation. The mainstream financial press loves to find these intricate domino effects, but really, gold isn't copper. One's an industrial barometer, the other's a timeless store of value. Frankly, I see Goldman's bearish copper outlook as more of a sign of general economic cooling, which historically, makes gold look even more attractive as a safe haven. While everyone else is busy watching industrial metals like a hawk, I'm just quietly adding to my stack during these dips.

    8
    sandra_green📊Growing (50-100k)✓ Verifiedabout 1 month ago

    @Joshua Phillips This is a really good point you're raising, and it's something I’ve been wrestling with too after seeing that Goldman report. Back when I first started moving some of my 401k into a Gold IRA, around 2020 right before things really went nuts, I remember reading all these analyses about gold's "store of value" and how different commodities sometimes signal future economic moves. I almost pulled the trigger on a larger physical silver allocation because of its industrial uses, thinking it was a proxy for the broader economy and would track gold but with more upside. Now I'm glad I held off on that because while it's interesting academically, trying to time the market based on copper futures when your goal is long-term wealth preservation for retirement just feels like an unnecessary complication.

    2
    andrew_roberts👑Elite (1m-5m)Real Investor✓ Verifiedabout 1 month ago

    @Ruth Perez I hear you on the gold allocation, totally on board there. My physical gold position is substantial, especially for preserving my retirement savings. For me, the whole point of a **gold IRA** was to diversify away from more volatile industrial metals, even with copper's long-term utility. The 401k rollover I did years ago to fund my precious metals portfolio mostly went straight into gold and some silver, precisely for that stability and the excellent tax advantages. This Goldman report just reinforces that decision for me.

    2
    christopher_young🌟Ultra (5m+)Real Investor✓ Verifiedabout 1 month ago

    Interesting take, and I appreciate the heads-up on Goldman's view. Frankly, I've seen them miss the mark more often than hit in this space, especially when it comes to metals. My own analysis, looking at the structural supply deficits coming online *before* accounting for any green energy push, suggests copper still has significant upside. I started layering in some junior copper miners a few months back when the market was less enthusiastic, and I'm still feeling good about that play.

    19
    linda_taylor📊Growing (50-100k)✓ Verifiedabout 1 month ago

    @Charles Lewis Totally agree. This copper news is just another reminder why my **retirement savings** are heavily weighted in **precious metals**. I started with a modest **401k rollover** to a **gold IRA** a few years back, around $75k, and the stability has been a huge relief living here in Seattle with all the market volatility. The **tax advantages** are a nice bonus too, can't argue with that.

    12
    steven_mitchell🏆Advanced (250-500k)Real Investor✓ Verifiedabout 1 month ago

    Interesting take on copper, but I think focusing solely on Goldman's short-term outlook misses the bigger picture. I've been watching industrial metals pretty closely as part of my diversification strategy, and while copper might see some near-term jitters, the long-term fundamentals for electrification and infrastructure seem too strong to ignore. I'm not adding aggressively, but I'm certainly not trimming anything I hold based on this.

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