Trying to decide if I'm nuts for waiting on a gold purchase

Steven Mitchell

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Trying to decide if I'm nuts for waiting on a gold purchase

steven_mitchell🏆Advanced (250-500k)

2 months ago

Key Takeaways

•Okay, so I've been sitting on about $75k in cash in my IRA for a while now, originally earmarked for a gold purchase.
•My thinking was, with everything going on (inflation, geopolitical stuff), gold *has* to go a bit lower before it really pops, right?
•I'm sure I'm not the only one who thinks this.

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Okay, so I've been sitting on about $75k in cash in my IRA for a while now, originally earmarked for a gold purchase. My thinking was, with everything going on (inflation, geopolitical stuff), gold has to go a bit lower before it really pops, right? I'm sure I'm not the only one who thinks this. I've got a decent chunk already, probably around $300k of my overall $400k retirement portfolio is in various hard assets, mostly real estate and some physical gold/silver, but I really want to round out the precious metals side of things with this last chunk.

I know the standard advice is "you can't time the market," and believe me, as a manufacturing exec here in Cleveland, I've heard that particular gem about a million times when it comes to stocks. But gold feels different. It's not about quarterly earnings or P/E ratios. It's a tangible asset, a hedge, and its movements feel more... primal? Like, when the Fed starts hinting at rate cuts, or some new crisis flares up, you see a more direct correlation. Or am I just kidding myself?

My gut tells me we might see a dip, maybe back down to the low $2000s, before it really runs. If it hits that, I'm pulling the trigger on some more Gold Eagles. But every time it ticks up a little, I get this anxious feeling in my stomach, like I'm leaving money on the table. Is it pure folly to wait? Has anyone successfully "timed" a substantial gold purchase, or is it always just better to dollar-cost average?

I feel like I'm standing at the edge of a cliff, trying to decide when to jump. My wife thinks I'm overthinking it and should just buy now. What's everyone else's strategy for substantial purchases? Just set a price alert and forget it, or are you actively looking for entry points like I am?

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4 comments

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Best Answer▲ 10 upvotes

paul_hill🏆Advanced (250-500k)

Hey, I hear you on that. It's tough trying to time the market, especially with something as historically stable (but also volatile short-term) as gold.

I'm curious, what's making you think it has to go lower? Are there specific indicators or trends you're watching that point to a dip before a surge?

Comments (4)

barbara_white🏆Advanced (250-500k)Real Investor✓ Verified•about 2 months ago

Totally get where you're coming from. I did something similar back in '08 with a chunk of my 401k. Thought I was being super smart, waiting for "the dip" in everything. Ended up missing out on some decent gains that year before I finally bit the bullet. Hindsight's 20/20, but sometimes it feels like trying to time the market is just a recipe for anxiety, especially with something like gold.

paul_hill🏆Advanced (250-500k)Real Investor✓ Verified•about 2 months ago

Hey, I hear you on that. It's tough trying to time the market, especially with something as historically stable (but also volatile short-term) as gold.

I'm curious, what's making you think it has to go lower? Are there specific indicators or trends you're watching that point to a dip before a surge?

margaret_chen🏆Advanced (250-500k)Real Investor•about 2 months ago

I hear you on the "waiting for a dip" mentality, it's super common right now. But honestly, with $75k just sitting there, you're not just waiting for gold to drop, you're also losing purchasing power to inflation every day it's in cash. Even if gold takes a small dip, the erosion of that $75k due to inflation might outweigh any potential savings from buying lower. Just a thought!

matthew_murphy👑Elite (1m-5m)Real Investor•about 2 months ago

Hey, I totally get the hesitation. Trying to time the market, especially with something like gold, can feel like you're playing chess against a grandmaster.

One thing that really helped me with my own gold IRA decisions was checking out some historical gold price charts alongside major economic events. Sometimes seeing how it reacted in the past can offer a bit of clarity, even if history doesn't perfectly repeat. You might find some interesting insights on a site like Macrotrends; their long-term charts are pretty good for that kind of analysis.

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Most people don't diversify until after a crash. Get the free guide and protect your nest egg.

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