Hard to time gold, but are we entering a generational bottom?

Frank Rivera

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Hard to time gold, but are we entering a generational bottom?

frank_rivera💎Premium (500k-1m)

about 2 months ago

Key Takeaways

•Living in Honolulu, you really feel the impact of any global instability, especially with what's going on in the Pacific.
•That's always pushed me towards tangible assets, hence the gold.
•The whole "timing the market" thing in gold has always been a head-scratcher for me.

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I've been holding a pretty decent chunk of my retirement in gold since the early 2000s, mostly American Gold Eagles and some South African Krugerrands. I started with about 20% of my portfolio after I retired from the Navy, and that's grown significantly to around $750k in physical gold in my SDIRA now. Living in Honolulu, you really feel the impact of any global instability, especially with what's going on in the Pacific. That's always pushed me towards tangible assets, hence the gold.

The whole "timing the market" thing in gold has always been a head-scratcher for me. I've always been more of a "buy and hold" guy, especially after seeing so many of my buddies try to ride the ups and downs and end up losing more than they gained. Gold's not like stocks where you get earnings reports and analyst ratings every quarter. It's more about global sentiment, geopolitical tensions, and central bank maneuvers. I'm not smart enough to predict all that. So, I just commit to a percentage and stick with it.

However, I gotta admit, with all the talk about interest rate hikes slowing down, and the general economic shakiness globally, I'm starting to wonder if we're not heading into a really strong period for gold. It feels like things are lining up for a significant bounce. I’m thinking about adding another $50k-$75k in increments over the next year, just to increase my position a bit more. I usually buy on dips, but if a sustained rally starts, I might just dollar-cost average in.

What are your thoughts on this? Are any of you who typically avoid timing gold starting to feel like there's a generational opportunity brewing here? Or is it just another false signal in the noise? I'm curious to hear from others who have been in this game for a while.

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Best Answer▲ 14 upvotes

joshua_phillips🏆Advanced (250-500k)

My advisor told me 10-15% in gold is the sweet spot but I went heavier. We'll see how it plays out.

Comments (10)

donald_nelson💎Premium (500k-1m)Real Investor✓ Verified•about 2 months ago

Totally feel this. I've had a similar experience with a good chunk of my portfolio in physical gold for a while now. The whole "timing the market" thing with anything, let alone gold, is a nightmare. But yeah, the thought that we could be at a generational bottom has definitely crossed my mind too. It makes you wonder, doesn't it?

sharon_evans💰Established (100-250k)Real Investor•about 2 months ago

This is really interesting. So you've got $750k in physical gold *within* your SDIRA? How does that work logistically with storing the physical coins? Do you have to pay separate storage fees for that, or is it all rolled into the SDIRA fees?

sharon_evans💰Established (100-250k)Real Investor•about 2 months ago

Interesting take on a generational bottom. While I see the appeal of that kind of long-term thinking, I'm personally a bit more skeptical about trying to *time* anything, even something as rock-solid as gold. We've seen some wild swings in the past, and what looks like a bottom today could always just be a temporary dip before another slide, or a bounce before a plateau. For me, it's less about catching the absolute low and more about consistent, diversified accumulation. But I get why you're looking for those big picture moves with that kind of holding!

paul_hill🏆Advanced (250-500k)Real Investor✓ Verified•about 2 months ago

Hey, that's a solid chunk of change in gold, nicely done! It's always tough to call the bottom, but I've found it super helpful to keep an eye on the gold-to-silver ratio. When it gets really skewed, it often signals a good buying opportunity for silver, or sometimes a turning point for both metals. Might be worth adding to your toolkit!

gary_stewart📊Growing (50-100k)•about 2 months ago

Totally agree, OP. Timing the market for *anything* is a fool's errand, but man, the current geopolitical climate combined with inflation fears really makes you wonder if we're not seeing something special here.

I also got into gold fairly early, around 2008-2009 after the financial crisis when my advisor suggested it. Started smaller, maybe 10% of my portfolio with Canadian Maple Leafs, and that's been a fantastic anchor through all the craziness since. I'm sitting on about $300k now, mostly still in physical, and I'm not touching it.

donna_rogers🏆Advanced (250-500k)Real Investor•about 1 month ago

I was pretty skeptical about another gold IRA forum but the tools here on GIRAB actually surprised me — the calculator alone saved me hours of spreadsheet work.

joyce_cooper📊Growing (50-100k)✓ Verified•about 1 month ago

Been looking into this myself — the fees on some of these custodians are wild. Anyone found one that doesn't gouge you?

joshua_phillips🏆Advanced (250-500k)Real Investor✓ Verified•about 1 month ago

My advisor told me 10-15% in gold is the sweet spot but I went heavier. We'll see how it plays out.

matthew_murphy👑Elite (1m-5m)Real Investor•about 1 month ago

I was pretty skeptical about another gold IRA forum but the tools here on GIRAB actually surprised me — the calculator alone saved me hours of spreadsheet work.