Geopolitics and gold - anyone else re-evaluating their allocation?

• •I remember when the invasion of Ukraine happened, gold spiked, as expected.
• •But then it pulled back fairly quickly.
• •The recent flare-ups elsewhere seem to cause more acute, short-term pops rather than sustained upward trends.

Been thinking a lot lately about how geopolitical events are really shaping gold prices, and honestly, it’s making me a bit nervous about my current allocation in my Gold IRA. I’ve had around 15% of my ~$400k portfolio in physical gold for the past five years, mainly as a hedge against inflation and general market volatility. My initial research, mostly through academic papers and historical data from the 70s and early 2000s, pointed to gold as a solid safe harbor during uncertain times.

Lately, though, with everything going on in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and even rumblings in East Asia, it feels like the traditional correlation might be shifting, or at least becoming more… immediate. I remember when the invasion of Ukraine happened, gold spiked, as expected. But then it pulled back fairly quickly. The recent flare-ups elsewhere seem to cause more acute, short-term pops rather than sustained upward trends. Is it just me, or are these events getting priced in much faster now? Or is it that the "safe haven" aspect is competing with other factors like interest rate hikes and dollar strength more aggressively?

I'm a professor here in Richmond, and my research typically involves pretty deep dives into macroeconomic models, so I'm trying to look at this beyond just anecdotal evidence. I'm wondering if the very nature of these geopolitical threats – more regionalized conflicts versus broad, sweeping global crises – is changing how investors react to gold. Is it still the ultimate “crisis hedge” or are we seeing a more nuanced, perhaps even speculative, correlation now? My worry is that if the traditional safe-haven narrative weakens, then my carefully constructed allocation might not perform as expected when I eventually need to access those funds in retirement.

Has anyone else been re-evaluating their gold strategy in light of current global affairs? Have you altered your allocation, either up or down, based on your interpretation of these geopolitical shifts? I’m particularly interested if anyone has done some deeper statistical analysis on recent trends (post-2020, say) that might contradict the older conventional wisdom. Looking for some data-driven insights here, not just gut feelings!