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    Fed policy got me thinking... bullish on gold or not?

    J
    james_wilson👑Elite (1m-5m)
    about 2 months ago
    Key Takeaways
    • The latest Fed announcement has me doing some serious head-scratching over here in NYC.
    • Been retired from the Street for a few years now, and the bulk of my portfolio, well, let's just say it gleams.
    • We're talking a substantial chunk of my 2M set aside in metals, especially gold, a good portion of that in my IRA.
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    The latest Fed announcement has me doing some serious head-scratching over here in NYC. Been retired from the Street for a few years now, and the bulk of my portfolio, well, let's just say it gleams. We're talking a substantial chunk of my 2M set aside in metals, especially gold, a good portion of that in my IRA. Historically, Fed hawkishness makes me want to stack more, but this time around, I'm feeling a bit… unsettled.

    My gut tells me that with inflation proving to be stickier than they want to admit, and the whole "soft landing" narrative looking dustier by the minute, gold should be absolutely soaring. But then I see the rates climbing, and the immediate impact on the dollar index, which usually puts a damper on my shiny assets. Is it just me, or does anyone else feel like there are conflicting signals everywhere right now for precious metals? I keep running numbers through that Tax Calculator tool, trying to model out different scenarios for my distributions later on, and even that's giving me more questions than answers with the policy uncertainty.

    I remember back in '08, when I felt a similar kind of churn, and a few good moves then really pushed me towards this heavy allocation. But the macro environment feels different now. We're not just looking at a financial crisis, but geopolitical instability and supply chain issues that are harder to factor in. Would love to hear some other perspectives, especially from those of you who've been in the metals game for a while. What's your current read on the Fed's impact on gold for the next 12-18 months?

    212
    5 comments

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    Best Answer▲ 9 upvotes
    L
    laura_sanchez💰Established (100-250k)

    Yeah, I'm right there with you. That Fed announcement definitely had me wondering too. I've got a decent chunk, about 15% of my 1.5M, in gold and silver, and I'm feeling pretty good about it right now. Seems like a smart move given where things are headed.

    Comments (5)

    4
    sandra_green📊Growing (50-100k)✓ Verifiedabout 2 months ago

    Totally get where you're coming from. The Fed's zig-zags have me re-evaluating my positions constantly. I've got a decent chunk in gold too, not quite 2M like you (living the dream!), but enough that I'm always watching the news cycles like a hawk. Had a similar "is this still the right play?" moment after the last rate hike. Always good to hear differing perspectives on this stuff.

    6
    jason_morgan💰Established (100-250k)Real Investor✓ Verifiedabout 2 months ago

    Interesting post! So, when you say "a good portion of t" - are we talking mostly physical gold you've got stashed, or more like gold ETFs and mining stocks within that 2M metals allocation?

    Just curious how you've structured that gleamy chunk!

    8
    elizabeth_johnson💰Established (100-250k)Real Investor✓ Verifiedabout 2 months ago

    Honestly, while the Fed's moves definitely impact things, I'm not sure it's the sole or even primary driver for gold right now. Seems like geopolitical instability and just general market uncertainty are playing a huge role. I get the bullish sentiment, but let's not forget that gold can also underperform even in choppy waters. It's not always a straight shot up.

    3
    timothy_reed💎Premium (500k-1m)Real Investorabout 2 months ago

    Hey, totally feel you on the head-scratching! Fed policy definitely keeps things interesting for gold. Given your substantial gold holdings, have you looked into the historical correlation between real interest rates and gold prices? It can be a pretty insightful metric for anticipating gold's direction, especially with the Fed's current stance. The World Gold Council has some great research on this if you're looking for a deeper dive.

    9
    laura_sanchez💰Established (100-250k)Real Investor✓ Verifiedabout 2 months ago

    Yeah, I'm right there with you. That Fed announcement definitely had me wondering too. I've got a decent chunk, about 15% of my 1.5M, in gold and silver, and I'm feeling pretty good about it right now. Seems like a smart move given where things are headed.

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