Anyone else rethinking their "never time the market" mantra for gold?

Mark Adams

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Anyone else rethinking their "never time the market" mantra for gold?

mark_adams👑Elite (1m-5m)

less than a minute ago

Key Takeaways

•It's drilled into you from day one in this business.
•For stocks, the overall trend is more consistently upward, even with corrections.
•But gold seems to have more pronounced, almost episodic, surges.

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I've always been a pretty devout disciple of the "time in the market beats timing the market" philosophy, especially when it comes to my mainstream equity allocations. It's drilled into you from day one in this business. But lately, I've been really wrestling with that belief when I look at my gold position, specifically the gold I've been steadily accumulating in my self-directed IRA.

My typical approach for my gold allocation (which is usually around 5-10% of my investable assets, currently sitting a hair above that) has been to dollar-cost average, just like everything else. But seeing some of the recent swings, and looking back at the last decade, it makes me wonder if I'm leaving significant alpha on the table with gold. We often hear about gold being a safe haven, a hedge against inflation or geopolitical turmoil, but if you look at the performance, there are definitely periods where it absolutely rips and others where it's pretty flat.

I was playing around with that "Gold vs Stocks Comparison" tool over at goldvsstocks.goldirablueprint.com/?period=10Y, setting it to the 10-year mark, and it really highlights these cycles. For stocks, the overall trend is more consistently upward, even with corrections. But gold seems to have more pronounced, almost episodic, surges. It makes me question if a more opportunistic approach might be warranted, particularly for physical gold or gold ETFs. I'm not talking about trying to perfectly hit every peak and trough, but perhaps scaling in more aggressively during dips when macro indicators suggest a potential upswing, or trimming a little if things get really frothy.

Am I overthinking this? Is anyone else here, especially those with a substantial gold allocation in their IRAs, deviating from pure DCA for their precious metals? Or is the consensus still to just keep stacking no matter what? I'm genuinely curious about different strategies here. Greenwich is buzzing with talk about portfolio adjustments, and this is one area I feel less settled about.

3 comments

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Best Answer▲ 3 upvotes

janet_cook📊Growing (50-100k)

Totally get where you're coming from. I'm usually super by-the-book with my investments, but gold has always felt a little different. I actually did end up selling a portion of my gold a few years back when it was really high, thinking I'd just buy back in later lower. Lo and behold, things dipped, and I scooped it back up. It felt like playing with fire, and I wouldn't do it with my 401k, but with gold, it felt... different, like you said. Definitely makes you question those blanket rules.

Comments (3)

janet_cook📊Growing (50-100k)•less than a minute ago

helen_turner💰Established (100-250k)Real Investor•less than a minute ago

Totally get what you're saying. That mantra feels a bit different for gold than, say, an S&P 500 index fund, right?

You mentioned "rethinking that belief when I look at my gold" – what specific aspects or trends in gold's performance or market behavior are making you question it the most?

susan_clark💰Established (100-250k)Real Investor•less than a minute ago

I totally get where you're coming from, and it's a valid question to ask, especially with how gold has been moving. But I'd argue that even with gold, "timing" is still a risky game. What if you "time" it wrong and miss a significant upswing while you're waiting for a dip that never comes, or a dip that's shallower than you expected?

For me, gold isn't really about market timing in the same way stocks are. It's more of a long-term hedge against inflation and instability. Trying to perfectly buy low and sell high with it feels like it defeats its core purpose as a portfolio diversifier. Just my two cents!

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